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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199710-199712

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
35
31
24
90
0
0
0
0
1
1
13
15
36
32
37
105

contingency table
fcst
obs
35
31
24
90
0
0
0
0
1
1
13
15
36
32
37
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
33
30
23
86
0
0
0
0
1
1
12
14
34
30
35
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
33
30
23
86
0
0
0
0
1
1
12
14
34
30
35
100

hitrate: 0.457 hitrate: 0.457
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.50 0.00 0.41
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.50 0.00 0.41
Heidke skill score: 0.186 Heidke skill score: 0.186
true Heidke skill score: 0.172 true Heidke skill score: 0.172
Kuipers skill score: 0.186 Kuipers skill score: 0.186
true Kuipers skill score: 0.170 true Kuipers skill score: 0.170
threat score:
0.385 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.385 0.000 0.333
equitable threat score:
0.069 0.000 0.229
equitable threat score:
0.069 0.000 0.229
probability of detection:
0.972 0.000 0.351
probability of detection:
0.972 0.000 0.351
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.611 0.000 0.133
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.611 0.000 0.133
samples: 105 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00