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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199710-199712

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
28
27
24
79
3
0
2
5
5
5
11
21
36
32
37
105

contingency table
fcst
obs
28
27
24
79
3
0
2
5
5
5
11
21
36
32
37
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
27
26
23
75
3
0
2
5
5
5
10
20
34
30
35
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
27
26
23
75
3
0
2
5
5
5
10
20
34
30
35
100

hitrate: 0.371 hitrate: 0.371
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.19 0.16 0.57
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.19 0.16 0.57
Heidke skill score: 0.057 Heidke skill score: 0.057
true Heidke skill score: 0.043 true Heidke skill score: 0.043
Kuipers skill score: 0.057 Kuipers skill score: 0.057
true Kuipers skill score: 0.043 true Kuipers skill score: 0.043
threat score:
0.322 0.000 0.234
threat score:
0.322 0.000 0.234
equitable threat score:
0.015 -0.043 0.091
equitable threat score:
0.015 -0.043 0.091
probability of detection:
0.778 0.000 0.297
probability of detection:
0.778 0.000 0.297
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.646 1.000 0.476
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.646 1.000 0.476
samples: 105 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00