CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199711-199801
 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season
cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
16
15
24
55
6
4
7
17
12
9
12
33
34
28
43
105

contingency table
fcst
obs
16
15
24
55
6
4
7
17
12
9
12
33
34
28
43
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
15
14
23
52
6
4
7
16
11
9
11
31
32
27
41
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
15
14
23
52
6
4
7
16
11
9
11
31
32
27
41
100

hitrate: 0.305 hitrate: 0.305
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.62 0.61 0.77		 bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.62 0.61 0.77
Heidke skill score: -0.043 Heidke skill score: -0.043
true Heidke skill score: -0.056 true Heidke skill score: -0.056
Kuipers skill score: -0.043 Kuipers skill score: -0.043
true Kuipers skill score: -0.056 true Kuipers skill score: -0.056
threat score:
0.219 0.098 0.188		 threat score:
0.219 0.098 0.188
equitable threat score:
-0.033 -0.015 -0.030		 equitable threat score:
-0.033 -0.015 -0.030
probability of detection:
0.471 0.143 0.279		 probability of detection:
0.471 0.143 0.279
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.709 0.765 0.636		 false alarm rate (FAR):
0.709 0.765 0.636
samples: 105 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00