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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199711-199801

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
19
17
25
61
8
4
4
16
7
7
14
28
34
28
43
105

contingency table
fcst
obs
19
17
25
61
8
4
4
16
7
7
14
28
34
28
43
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
18
16
24
58
8
4
4
15
7
7
13
27
32
27
41
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
18
16
24
58
8
4
4
15
7
7
13
27
32
27
41
100

hitrate: 0.352 hitrate: 0.352
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.79 0.57 0.65
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.79 0.57 0.65
Heidke skill score: 0.029 Heidke skill score: 0.029
true Heidke skill score: 0.022 true Heidke skill score: 0.022
Kuipers skill score: 0.029 Kuipers skill score: 0.029
true Kuipers skill score: 0.022 true Kuipers skill score: 0.022
threat score:
0.250 0.100 0.246
threat score:
0.250 0.100 0.246
equitable threat score:
-0.013 -0.007 0.056
equitable threat score:
-0.013 -0.007 0.056
probability of detection:
0.559 0.143 0.326
probability of detection:
0.559 0.143 0.326
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.689 0.750 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.689 0.750 0.500
samples: 105 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00