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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199711-199801

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
17
20
28
65
0
1
1
2
17
7
14
38
34
28
43
105

contingency table
fcst
obs
17
20
28
65
0
1
1
2
17
7
14
38
34
28
43
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
16
19
27
62
0
1
1
2
16
7
13
36
32
27
41
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
16
19
27
62
0
1
1
2
16
7
13
36
32
27
41
100

hitrate: 0.305 hitrate: 0.305
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.91 0.07 0.88
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.91 0.07 0.88
Heidke skill score: -0.043 Heidke skill score: -0.043
true Heidke skill score: -0.076 true Heidke skill score: -0.076
Kuipers skill score: -0.043 Kuipers skill score: -0.043
true Kuipers skill score: -0.075 true Kuipers skill score: -0.075
threat score:
0.207 0.034 0.209
threat score:
0.207 0.034 0.209
equitable threat score:
-0.066 0.016 -0.030
equitable threat score:
-0.066 0.016 -0.030
probability of detection:
0.500 0.036 0.326
probability of detection:
0.500 0.036 0.326
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.738 0.500 0.632
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.738 0.500 0.632
samples: 105 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00