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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199712-199802

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
12
12
41
65
2
3
10
15
4
6
15
25
18
21
66
105

contingency table
fcst
obs
12
12
41
65
2
3
10
15
4
6
15
25
18
21
66
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
11
39
62
2
3
10
14
4
6
14
24
17
20
63
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
11
39
62
2
3
10
14
4
6
14
24
17
20
63
100

hitrate: 0.286 hitrate: 0.286
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.61 0.71 0.38
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.61 0.71 0.38
Heidke skill score: -0.071 Heidke skill score: -0.071
true Heidke skill score: 0.002 true Heidke skill score: 0.002
Kuipers skill score: -0.071 Kuipers skill score: -0.071
true Kuipers skill score: 0.003 true Kuipers skill score: 0.003
threat score:
0.169 0.091 0.197
threat score:
0.169 0.091 0.197
equitable threat score:
0.014 0.000 -0.012
equitable threat score:
0.014 0.000 -0.012
probability of detection:
0.667 0.143 0.227
probability of detection:
0.667 0.143 0.227
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.815 0.800 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.815 0.800 0.400
samples: 105 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00