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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199712-199802
 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season
cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
11
33
52
2
3
5
10
8
7
28
43
18
21
66
105

contingency table
fcst
obs
8
11
33
52
2
3
5
10
8
7
28
43
18
21
66
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
10
31
50
2
3
5
10
8
7
27
41
17
20
63
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
10
31
50
2
3
5
10
8
7
27
41
17
20
63
100

hitrate: 0.371 hitrate: 0.371
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.89 0.48 0.65		 bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.89 0.48 0.65
Heidke skill score: 0.057 Heidke skill score: 0.057
true Heidke skill score: 0.016 true Heidke skill score: 0.016
Kuipers skill score: 0.057 Kuipers skill score: 0.057
true Kuipers skill score: 0.019 true Kuipers skill score: 0.019
threat score:
0.129 0.107 0.346		 threat score:
0.129 0.107 0.346
equitable threat score:
-0.017 0.038 0.018		 equitable threat score:
-0.017 0.038 0.018
probability of detection:
0.444 0.143 0.424		 probability of detection:
0.444 0.143 0.424
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.846 0.700 0.349		 false alarm rate (FAR):
0.846 0.700 0.349
samples: 105 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00