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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199712-199802

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
12
12
38
62
0
0
1
1
6
9
27
42
18
21
66
105

contingency table
fcst
obs
12
12
38
62
0
0
1
1
6
9
27
42
18
21
66
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
11
36
59
0
0
1
1
6
9
26
40
17
20
63
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
11
36
59
0
0
1
1
6
9
26
40
17
20
63
100

hitrate: 0.371 hitrate: 0.371
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.44 0.05 0.64
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.44 0.05 0.64
Heidke skill score: 0.057 Heidke skill score: 0.057
true Heidke skill score: 0.026 true Heidke skill score: 0.026
Kuipers skill score: 0.057 Kuipers skill score: 0.057
true Kuipers skill score: 0.032 true Kuipers skill score: 0.032
threat score:
0.176 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.176 0.000 0.333
equitable threat score:
0.024 -0.009 0.011
equitable threat score:
0.024 -0.009 0.011
probability of detection:
0.667 0.000 0.409
probability of detection:
0.667 0.000 0.409
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.806 1.000 0.357
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.806 1.000 0.357
samples: 105 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00