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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199801-199803

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
12
42
58
0
3
7
10
4
3
31
38
8
18
80
106

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
12
42
58
0
3
7
10
4
3
31
38
8
18
80
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
11
40
55
0
3
7
9
4
3
29
36
8
17
75
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
11
40
55
0
3
7
9
4
3
29
36
8
17
75
100

hitrate: 0.358 hitrate: 0.358
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
7.25 0.56 0.47
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
7.25 0.56 0.47
Heidke skill score: 0.038 Heidke skill score: 0.038
true Heidke skill score: 0.046 true Heidke skill score: 0.046
Kuipers skill score: 0.038 Kuipers skill score: 0.038
true Kuipers skill score: 0.077 true Kuipers skill score: 0.077
threat score:
0.065 0.120 0.356
threat score:
0.065 0.120 0.356
equitable threat score:
-0.007 0.056 0.040
equitable threat score:
-0.007 0.056 0.040
probability of detection:
0.500 0.167 0.387
probability of detection:
0.500 0.167 0.387
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.931 0.700 0.184
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.931 0.700 0.184
samples: 106 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00