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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199801-199803

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
14
47
65
1
2
8
11
3
2
25
30
8
18
80
106

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
14
47
65
1
2
8
11
3
2
25
30
8
18
80
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
13
44
61
1
2
8
10
3
2
24
28
8
17
75
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
13
44
61
1
2
8
10
3
2
24
28
8
17
75
100

hitrate: 0.292 hitrate: 0.292
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
8.12 0.61 0.37
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
8.12 0.61 0.37
Heidke skill score: -0.061 Heidke skill score: -0.061
true Heidke skill score: 0.021 true Heidke skill score: 0.021
Kuipers skill score: -0.061 Kuipers skill score: -0.061
true Kuipers skill score: 0.038 true Kuipers skill score: 0.038
threat score:
0.058 0.074 0.294
threat score:
0.058 0.074 0.294
equitable threat score:
-0.014 0.005 0.038
equitable threat score:
-0.014 0.005 0.038
probability of detection:
0.500 0.111 0.312
probability of detection:
0.500 0.111 0.312
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.938 0.818 0.167
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.938 0.818 0.167
samples: 106 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00