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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199801-199803
 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season
cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
14
55
75
0
2
5
7
2
2
20
24
8
18
80
106

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
14
55
75
0
2
5
7
2
2
20
24
8
18
80
106

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
13
52
71
0
2
5
7
2
2
19
23
8
17
75
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
13
52
71
0
2
5
7
2
2
19
23
8
17
75
100

hitrate: 0.264 hitrate: 0.264
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
9.38 0.39 0.30		 bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
9.38 0.39 0.30
Heidke skill score: -0.104 Heidke skill score: -0.104
true Heidke skill score: 0.037 true Heidke skill score: 0.037
Kuipers skill score: -0.104 Kuipers skill score: -0.104
true Kuipers skill score: 0.072 true Kuipers skill score: 0.072
threat score:
0.078 0.087 0.238		 threat score:
0.078 0.087 0.238
equitable threat score:
0.005 0.037 0.029		 equitable threat score:
0.005 0.037 0.029
probability of detection:
0.750 0.111 0.250		 probability of detection:
0.750 0.111 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.920 0.714 0.167		 false alarm rate (FAR):
0.920 0.714 0.167
samples: 106 out of 106 samples: 106 out of 106
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00