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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199802-199804

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
12
35
49
1
2
6
9
7
13
27
47
10
27
68
105

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
12
35
49
1
2
6
9
7
13
27
47
10
27
68
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
11
33
47
1
2
6
9
7
12
26
45
10
26
65
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
11
33
47
1
2
6
9
7
12
26
45
10
26
65
100

hitrate: 0.295 hitrate: 0.295
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.90 0.33 0.69
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.90 0.33 0.69
Heidke skill score: -0.057 Heidke skill score: -0.057
true Heidke skill score: -0.095 true Heidke skill score: -0.095
Kuipers skill score: -0.057 Kuipers skill score: -0.057
true Kuipers skill score: -0.121 true Kuipers skill score: -0.121
threat score:
0.035 0.059 0.307
threat score:
0.035 0.059 0.307
equitable threat score:
-0.051 -0.010 -0.060
equitable threat score:
-0.051 -0.010 -0.060
probability of detection:
0.200 0.074 0.397
probability of detection:
0.200 0.074 0.397
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.959 0.778 0.426
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.959 0.778 0.426
samples: 105 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00