CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199802-199804
 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season
cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
18
37
61
0
3
7
10
4
6
24
34
10
27
68
105

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
18
37
61
0
3
7
10
4
6
24
34
10
27
68
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
17
35
58
0
3
7
10
4
6
23
32
10
26
65
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
17
35
58
0
3
7
10
4
6
23
32
10
26
65
100

hitrate: 0.314 hitrate: 0.314
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
6.10 0.37 0.50		 bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
6.10 0.37 0.50
Heidke skill score: -0.029 Heidke skill score: -0.029
true Heidke skill score: 0.035 true Heidke skill score: 0.035
Kuipers skill score: -0.029 Kuipers skill score: -0.029
true Kuipers skill score: 0.049 true Kuipers skill score: 0.049
threat score:
0.092 0.088 0.308		 threat score:
0.092 0.088 0.308
equitable threat score:
0.003 0.014 0.035		 equitable threat score:
0.003 0.014 0.035
probability of detection:
0.600 0.111 0.353		 probability of detection:
0.600 0.111 0.353
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.902 0.700 0.294		 false alarm rate (FAR):
0.902 0.700 0.294
samples: 105 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00