CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199802-199804

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
14
36
54
0
2
1
3
6
11
31
48
10
27
68
105

contingency table
fcst
obs
4
14
36
54
0
2
1
3
6
11
31
48
10
27
68
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
13
34
51
0
2
1
3
6
10
30
46
10
26
65
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
13
34
51
0
2
1
3
6
10
30
46
10
26
65
100

hitrate: 0.352 hitrate: 0.352
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
5.40 0.11 0.71
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
5.40 0.11 0.71
Heidke skill score: 0.029 Heidke skill score: 0.029
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.000
Kuipers skill score: 0.029 Kuipers skill score: 0.029
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.000
threat score:
0.067 0.071 0.365
threat score:
0.067 0.071 0.365
equitable threat score:
-0.021 0.045 -0.002
equitable threat score:
-0.021 0.045 -0.002
probability of detection:
0.400 0.074 0.456
probability of detection:
0.400 0.074 0.456
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.926 0.333 0.354
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.926 0.333 0.354
samples: 105 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00