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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199803-199805

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
18
26
53
3
4
7
14
6
12
20
38
18
34
53
105

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
18
26
53
3
4
7
14
6
12
20
38
18
34
53
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
17
25
50
3
4
7
13
6
11
19
36
17
32
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
17
25
50
3
4
7
13
6
11
19
36
17
32
50
100

hitrate: 0.314 hitrate: 0.314
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.94 0.41 0.72
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.94 0.41 0.72
Heidke skill score: -0.029 Heidke skill score: -0.029
true Heidke skill score: 0.003 true Heidke skill score: 0.003
Kuipers skill score: -0.029 Kuipers skill score: -0.029
true Kuipers skill score: 0.003 true Kuipers skill score: 0.003
threat score:
0.145 0.091 0.282
threat score:
0.145 0.091 0.282
equitable threat score:
-0.002 -0.014 0.016
equitable threat score:
-0.002 -0.014 0.016
probability of detection:
0.500 0.118 0.377
probability of detection:
0.500 0.118 0.377
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.830 0.714 0.474
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.830 0.714 0.474
samples: 105 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00