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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199803-199805

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
18
28
53
1
2
4
7
10
14
21
45
18
34
53
105

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
18
28
53
1
2
4
7
10
14
21
45
18
34
53
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
17
27
50
1
2
4
7
10
13
20
43
17
32
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
17
27
50
1
2
4
7
10
13
20
43
17
32
50
100

hitrate: 0.286 hitrate: 0.286
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.94 0.21 0.85
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.94 0.21 0.85
Heidke skill score: -0.071 Heidke skill score: -0.071
true Heidke skill score: -0.057 true Heidke skill score: -0.057
Kuipers skill score: -0.071 Kuipers skill score: -0.071
true Kuipers skill score: -0.063 true Kuipers skill score: -0.063
threat score:
0.109 0.051 0.273
threat score:
0.109 0.051 0.273
equitable threat score:
-0.038 -0.007 -0.032
equitable threat score:
-0.038 -0.007 -0.032
probability of detection:
0.389 0.059 0.396
probability of detection:
0.389 0.059 0.396
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.868 0.714 0.533
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.868 0.714 0.533
samples: 105 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00