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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199803-199805

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
21
30
58
1
3
4
8
10
10
19
39
18
34
53
105

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
21
30
58
1
3
4
8
10
10
19
39
18
34
53
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
20
29
55
1
3
4
8
10
10
18
37
17
32
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
7
20
29
55
1
3
4
8
10
10
18
37
17
32
50
100

hitrate: 0.276 hitrate: 0.276
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.22 0.24 0.74
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.22 0.24 0.74
Heidke skill score: -0.086 Heidke skill score: -0.086
true Heidke skill score: -0.044 true Heidke skill score: -0.044
Kuipers skill score: -0.086 Kuipers skill score: -0.086
true Kuipers skill score: -0.050 true Kuipers skill score: -0.050
threat score:
0.101 0.077 0.260
threat score:
0.101 0.077 0.260
equitable threat score:
-0.050 0.011 -0.013
equitable threat score:
-0.050 0.011 -0.013
probability of detection:
0.389 0.088 0.358
probability of detection:
0.389 0.088 0.358
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.879 0.625 0.513
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.879 0.625 0.513
samples: 105 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00