CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199804-199806

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
18
10
31
59
3
0
4
7
11
11
17
39
32
21
52
105

contingency table
fcst
obs
18
10
31
59
3
0
4
7
11
11
17
39
32
21
52
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
17
10
30
56
3
0
4
7
10
10
16
37
30
20
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
17
10
30
56
3
0
4
7
10
10
16
37
30
20
50
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.333
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.84 0.33 0.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.84 0.33 0.75
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: 0.000
true Heidke skill score: -0.056 true Heidke skill score: -0.056
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: 0.000
true Kuipers skill score: -0.057 true Kuipers skill score: -0.057
threat score:
0.247 0.000 0.230
threat score:
0.247 0.000 0.230
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.053 -0.042
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.053 -0.042
probability of detection:
0.562 0.000 0.327
probability of detection:
0.562 0.000 0.327
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.695 1.000 0.564
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.695 1.000 0.564
samples: 105 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00