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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199804-199806

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
18
10
33
61
9
1
3
13
5
10
16
31
32
21
52
105

contingency table
fcst
obs
18
10
33
61
9
1
3
13
5
10
16
31
32
21
52
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
17
10
31
58
9
1
3
12
5
10
15
30
30
20
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
17
10
31
58
9
1
3
12
5
10
15
30
30
20
50
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.333
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.91 0.62 0.60
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.91 0.62 0.60
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: 0.000
true Heidke skill score: -0.023 true Heidke skill score: -0.023
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: 0.000
true Kuipers skill score: -0.024 true Kuipers skill score: -0.024
threat score:
0.240 0.030 0.239
threat score:
0.240 0.030 0.239
equitable threat score:
-0.010 -0.053 0.013
equitable threat score:
-0.010 -0.053 0.013
probability of detection:
0.562 0.048 0.308
probability of detection:
0.562 0.048 0.308
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.705 0.923 0.484
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.705 0.923 0.484
samples: 105 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00