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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199804-199806

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
18
10
29
57
4
1
4
9
10
10
19
39
32
21
52
105

contingency table
fcst
obs
18
10
29
57
4
1
4
9
10
10
19
39
32
21
52
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
17
10
28
54
4
1
4
9
10
10
18
37
30
20
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
17
10
28
54
4
1
4
9
10
10
18
37
30
20
50
100

hitrate: 0.362 hitrate: 0.362
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.78 0.43 0.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.78 0.43 0.75
Heidke skill score: 0.043 Heidke skill score: 0.043
true Heidke skill score: -0.007 true Heidke skill score: -0.007
Kuipers skill score: 0.043 Kuipers skill score: 0.043
true Kuipers skill score: -0.007 true Kuipers skill score: -0.007
threat score:
0.254 0.034 0.264
threat score:
0.254 0.034 0.264
equitable threat score:
0.012 -0.029 -0.006
equitable threat score:
0.012 -0.029 -0.006
probability of detection:
0.562 0.048 0.365
probability of detection:
0.562 0.048 0.365
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.684 0.889 0.513
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.684 0.889 0.513
samples: 105 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00