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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199805-199807

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
12
16
28
56
6
3
5
14
5
11
19
35
23
30
52
105

contingency table
fcst
obs
12
16
28
56
6
3
5
14
5
11
19
35
23
30
52
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
15
27
53
6
3
5
13
5
10
18
33
22
29
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
15
27
53
6
3
5
13
5
10
18
33
22
29
50
100

hitrate: 0.324 hitrate: 0.324
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.43 0.47 0.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.43 0.47 0.67
Heidke skill score: -0.014 Heidke skill score: -0.014
true Heidke skill score: 0.006 true Heidke skill score: 0.006
Kuipers skill score: -0.014 Kuipers skill score: -0.014
true Kuipers skill score: 0.006 true Kuipers skill score: 0.006
threat score:
0.179 0.073 0.279
threat score:
0.179 0.073 0.279
equitable threat score:
-0.005 -0.027 0.033
equitable threat score:
-0.005 -0.027 0.033
probability of detection:
0.522 0.100 0.365
probability of detection:
0.522 0.100 0.365
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.786 0.786 0.457
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.786 0.786 0.457
samples: 105 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00