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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199805-199807

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
12
14
28
54
4
5
1
10
7
11
23
41
23
30
52
105

contingency table
fcst
obs
12
14
28
54
4
5
1
10
7
11
23
41
23
30
52
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
13
27
51
4
5
1
10
7
10
22
39
22
29
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
13
27
51
4
5
1
10
7
10
22
39
22
29
50
100

hitrate: 0.381 hitrate: 0.381
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.35 0.33 0.79
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.35 0.33 0.79
Heidke skill score: 0.071 Heidke skill score: 0.071
true Heidke skill score: 0.072 true Heidke skill score: 0.072
Kuipers skill score: 0.071 Kuipers skill score: 0.071
true Kuipers skill score: 0.076 true Kuipers skill score: 0.076
threat score:
0.185 0.143 0.329
threat score:
0.185 0.143 0.329
equitable threat score:
0.003 0.067 0.054
equitable threat score:
0.003 0.067 0.054
probability of detection:
0.522 0.167 0.442
probability of detection:
0.522 0.167 0.442
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.778 0.500 0.439
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.778 0.500 0.439
samples: 105 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00