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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199808-199810
 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season
cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
20
24
20
64
6
6
2
14
6
12
8
26
32
42
30
104

contingency table
fcst
obs
20
24
20
64
6
6
2
14
6
12
8
26
32
42
30
104

% contingency table
fcst
obs
19
23
19
62
6
6
2
13
6
12
8
25
31
40
29
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
19
23
19
62
6
6
2
13
6
12
8
25
31
40
29
100

hitrate: 0.327 hitrate: 0.327
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 0.33 0.87		 bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 0.33 0.87
Heidke skill score: -0.010 Heidke skill score: -0.010
true Heidke skill score: 0.016 true Heidke skill score: 0.016
Kuipers skill score: -0.010 Kuipers skill score: -0.010
true Kuipers skill score: 0.017 true Kuipers skill score: 0.017
threat score:
0.263 0.120 0.167		 threat score:
0.263 0.120 0.167
equitable threat score:
0.005 0.008 0.012		 equitable threat score:
0.005 0.008 0.012
probability of detection:
0.625 0.143 0.267		 probability of detection:
0.625 0.143 0.267
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.688 0.571 0.692		 false alarm rate (FAR):
0.688 0.571 0.692
samples: 104 out of 104 samples: 104 out of 104
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00