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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199811-199901

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
13
15
9
37
5
5
3
13
3
4
5
12
21
24
17
62

contingency table
fcst
obs
13
15
9
37
5
5
3
13
3
4
5
12
21
24
17
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
21
24
15
60
8
8
5
21
5
6
8
19
34
39
27
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
21
24
15
60
8
8
5
21
5
6
8
19
34
39
27
100

hitrate: 0.371 hitrate: 0.371
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.76 0.54 0.71
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.76 0.54 0.71
Heidke skill score: 0.056 Heidke skill score: 0.056
true Heidke skill score: 0.052 true Heidke skill score: 0.052
Kuipers skill score: 0.056 Kuipers skill score: 0.056
true Kuipers skill score: 0.052 true Kuipers skill score: 0.052
threat score:
0.289 0.156 0.208
threat score:
0.289 0.156 0.208
equitable threat score:
0.014 -0.001 0.083
equitable threat score:
0.014 -0.001 0.083
probability of detection:
0.619 0.208 0.294
probability of detection:
0.619 0.208 0.294
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.649 0.615 0.583
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.649 0.615 0.583
samples: 62 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00