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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199812-199902

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
12
11
8
31
8
7
6
21
6
3
1
10
26
21
15
62

contingency table
fcst
obs
12
11
8
31
8
7
6
21
6
3
1
10
26
21
15
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
19
18
13
50
13
11
10
34
10
5
2
16
42
34
24
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
19
18
13
50
13
11
10
34
10
5
2
16
42
34
24
100

hitrate: 0.323 hitrate: 0.323
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.19 1.00 0.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.19 1.00 0.67
Heidke skill score: -0.016 Heidke skill score: -0.016
true Heidke skill score: -0.064 true Heidke skill score: -0.064
Kuipers skill score: -0.016 Kuipers skill score: -0.016
true Kuipers skill score: -0.063 true Kuipers skill score: -0.063
threat score:
0.267 0.200 0.042
threat score:
0.267 0.200 0.042
equitable threat score:
-0.031 -0.004 -0.066
equitable threat score:
-0.031 -0.004 -0.066
probability of detection:
0.462 0.333 0.067
probability of detection:
0.462 0.333 0.067
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.613 0.667 0.900
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.613 0.667 0.900
samples: 62 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00