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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199902-199904

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
18
22
11
51
2
3
3
8
2
1
0
3
22
26
14
62

contingency table
fcst
obs
18
22
11
51
2
3
3
8
2
1
0
3
22
26
14
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
29
35
18
82
3
5
5
13
3
2
0
5
35
42
23
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
29
35
18
82
3
5
5
13
3
2
0
5
35
42
23
100

hitrate: 0.339 hitrate: 0.339
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.32 0.31 0.21
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.32 0.31 0.21
Heidke skill score: 0.008 Heidke skill score: 0.008
true Heidke skill score: -0.028 true Heidke skill score: -0.028
Kuipers skill score: 0.008 Kuipers skill score: 0.008
true Kuipers skill score: -0.028 true Kuipers skill score: -0.028
threat score:
0.327 0.097 0.000
threat score:
0.327 0.097 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.003 -0.013 -0.042
equitable threat score:
-0.003 -0.013 -0.042
probability of detection:
0.818 0.115 0.000
probability of detection:
0.818 0.115 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.647 0.625 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.647 0.625 1.000
samples: 62 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00