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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199905-199907

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
19
15
43
4
5
0
9
3
5
3
11
16
29
18
63

contingency table
fcst
obs
9
19
15
43
4
5
0
9
3
5
3
11
16
29
18
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
30
24
68
6
8
0
14
5
8
5
17
25
46
29
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
30
24
68
6
8
0
14
5
8
5
17
25
46
29
100

hitrate: 0.270 hitrate: 0.270
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.69 0.31 0.61
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.69 0.31 0.61
Heidke skill score: -0.095 Heidke skill score: -0.095
true Heidke skill score: -0.027 true Heidke skill score: -0.027
Kuipers skill score: -0.095 Kuipers skill score: -0.095
true Kuipers skill score: -0.030 true Kuipers skill score: -0.030
threat score:
0.180 0.152 0.115
threat score:
0.180 0.152 0.115
equitable threat score:
-0.049 0.030 -0.006
equitable threat score:
-0.049 0.030 -0.006
probability of detection:
0.562 0.172 0.167
probability of detection:
0.562 0.172 0.167
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.791 0.444 0.727
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.791 0.444 0.727
samples: 63 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00