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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199906-199908

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
8
5
16
11
7
11
29
2
8
8
18
16
23
24
63

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
8
5
16
11
7
11
29
2
8
8
18
16
23
24
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
13
8
25
17
11
17
46
3
13
13
29
25
37
38
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
13
8
25
17
11
17
46
3
13
13
29
25
37
38
100

hitrate: 0.286 hitrate: 0.286
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 1.26 0.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 1.26 0.75
Heidke skill score: -0.071 Heidke skill score: -0.071
true Heidke skill score: -0.085 true Heidke skill score: -0.085
Kuipers skill score: -0.071 Kuipers skill score: -0.071
true Kuipers skill score: -0.085 true Kuipers skill score: -0.085
threat score:
0.103 0.156 0.235
threat score:
0.103 0.156 0.235
equitable threat score:
-0.043 -0.104 0.042
equitable threat score:
-0.043 -0.104 0.042
probability of detection:
0.188 0.304 0.333
probability of detection:
0.188 0.304 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.812 0.759 0.556
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.812 0.759 0.556
samples: 63 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00