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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199908-199910

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
12
5
3
20
9
3
7
19
5
9
10
24
26
17
20
63

contingency table
fcst
obs
12
5
3
20
9
3
7
19
5
9
10
24
26
17
20
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
19
8
5
32
14
5
11
30
8
14
16
38
41
27
32
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
19
8
5
32
14
5
11
30
8
14
16
38
41
27
32
100

hitrate: 0.397 hitrate: 0.397
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.77 1.12 1.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.77 1.12 1.20
Heidke skill score: 0.095 Heidke skill score: 0.095
true Heidke skill score: 0.095 true Heidke skill score: 0.095
Kuipers skill score: 0.095 Kuipers skill score: 0.095
true Kuipers skill score: 0.097 true Kuipers skill score: 0.097
threat score:
0.353 0.091 0.294
threat score:
0.353 0.091 0.294
equitable threat score:
0.145 -0.076 0.090
equitable threat score:
0.145 -0.076 0.090
probability of detection:
0.462 0.176 0.500
probability of detection:
0.462 0.176 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.400 0.842 0.583
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.400 0.842 0.583
samples: 63 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00