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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200102-200104

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
13
23
7
43
0
1
0
1
2
13
6
21
15
37
13
65

contingency table
fcst
obs
13
23
7
43
0
1
0
1
2
13
6
21
15
37
13
65

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
35
11
66
0
2
0
2
3
20
9
32
23
57
20
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
20
35
11
66
0
2
0
2
3
20
9
32
23
57
20
100

hitrate: 0.308 hitrate: 0.308
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.87 0.03 1.62
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.87 0.03 1.62
Heidke skill score: -0.038 Heidke skill score: -0.038
true Heidke skill score: 0.106 true Heidke skill score: 0.106
Kuipers skill score: -0.038 Kuipers skill score: -0.038
true Kuipers skill score: 0.140 true Kuipers skill score: 0.140
threat score:
0.289 0.027 0.214
threat score:
0.289 0.027 0.214
equitable threat score:
0.088 0.012 0.076
equitable threat score:
0.088 0.012 0.076
probability of detection:
0.867 0.027 0.462
probability of detection:
0.867 0.027 0.462
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.698 0.000 0.714
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.698 0.000 0.714
samples: 65 out of 65 samples: 65 out of 65
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00