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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200108-200110

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
11
8
10
29
3
5
1
9
12
12
2
26
26
25
13
64

contingency table
fcst
obs
11
8
10
29
3
5
1
9
12
12
2
26
26
25
13
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
17
13
16
45
5
8
2
14
19
19
3
41
41
39
20
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
17
13
16
45
5
8
2
14
19
19
3
41
41
39
20
100

hitrate: 0.281 hitrate: 0.281
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.12 0.36 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.12 0.36 2.00
Heidke skill score: -0.078 Heidke skill score: -0.078
true Heidke skill score: -0.059 true Heidke skill score: -0.059
Kuipers skill score: -0.078 Kuipers skill score: -0.078
true Kuipers skill score: -0.063 true Kuipers skill score: -0.063
threat score:
0.250 0.172 0.054
threat score:
0.250 0.172 0.054
equitable threat score:
-0.024 0.058 -0.103
equitable threat score:
-0.024 0.058 -0.103
probability of detection:
0.423 0.200 0.154
probability of detection:
0.423 0.200 0.154
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.621 0.444 0.923
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.621 0.444 0.923
samples: 64 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00