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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200111-200201

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
3
2
11
13
8
4
25
13
10
4
27
32
21
10
63

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
3
2
11
13
8
4
25
13
10
4
27
32
21
10
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
5
3
17
21
13
6
40
21
16
6
43
51
33
16
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
5
3
17
21
13
6
40
21
16
6
43
51
33
16
100

hitrate: 0.286 hitrate: 0.286
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.34 1.19 2.70
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.34 1.19 2.70
Heidke skill score: -0.071 Heidke skill score: -0.071
true Heidke skill score: -0.005 true Heidke skill score: -0.005
Kuipers skill score: -0.071 Kuipers skill score: -0.071
true Kuipers skill score: -0.005 true Kuipers skill score: -0.005
threat score:
0.162 0.211 0.121
threat score:
0.162 0.211 0.121
equitable threat score:
0.013 -0.011 -0.010
equitable threat score:
0.013 -0.011 -0.010
probability of detection:
0.188 0.381 0.400
probability of detection:
0.188 0.381 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.455 0.680 0.852
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.455 0.680 0.852
samples: 63 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00