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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200112-200202

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
1
4
9
7
2
18
27
13
0
40
38
21
3
62

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
1
4
9
7
2
18
27
13
0
40
38
21
3
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
2
6
15
11
3
29
44
21
0
65
61
34
5
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
2
2
6
15
11
3
29
44
21
0
65
61
34
5
100

hitrate: 0.145 hitrate: 0.145
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.11 0.86 13.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.11 0.86 13.33
Heidke skill score: -0.282 Heidke skill score: -0.282
true Heidke skill score: -0.029 true Heidke skill score: -0.029
Kuipers skill score: -0.282 Kuipers skill score: -0.282
true Kuipers skill score: -0.047 true Kuipers skill score: -0.047
threat score:
0.050 0.219 0.000
threat score:
0.050 0.219 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.012 0.035 -0.047
equitable threat score:
-0.012 0.035 -0.047
probability of detection:
0.053 0.333 0.000
probability of detection:
0.053 0.333 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.611 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.611 1.000
samples: 62 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00