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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200201-200203

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
12
3
0
15
18
3
3
24
13
7
4
24
43
13
7
63

contingency table
fcst
obs
12
3
0
15
18
3
3
24
13
7
4
24
43
13
7
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
19
5
0
24
29
5
5
38
21
11
6
38
68
21
11
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
19
5
0
24
29
5
5
38
21
11
6
38
68
21
11
100

hitrate: 0.302 hitrate: 0.302
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.35 1.85 3.43
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.35 1.85 3.43
Heidke skill score: -0.048 Heidke skill score: -0.048
true Heidke skill score: 0.025 true Heidke skill score: 0.025
Kuipers skill score: -0.048 Kuipers skill score: -0.048
true Kuipers skill score: 0.038 true Kuipers skill score: 0.038
threat score:
0.261 0.088 0.148
threat score:
0.261 0.088 0.148
equitable threat score:
0.049 -0.067 0.055
equitable threat score:
0.049 -0.067 0.055
probability of detection:
0.279 0.231 0.571
probability of detection:
0.279 0.231 0.571
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.200 0.875 0.833
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.200 0.875 0.833
samples: 63 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00