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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200205-200207

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
25
14
7
46
8
3
7
18
0
0
0
0
33
17
14
64

contingency table
fcst
obs
25
14
7
46
8
3
7
18
0
0
0
0
33
17
14
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
39
22
11
72
13
5
11
28
0
0
0
0
52
27
22
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
39
22
11
72
13
5
11
28
0
0
0
0
52
27
22
100

hitrate: 0.438 hitrate: 0.438
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.39 1.06 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.39 1.06 0.00
Heidke skill score: 0.156 Heidke skill score: 0.156
true Heidke skill score: -0.014 true Heidke skill score: -0.014
Kuipers skill score: 0.156 Kuipers skill score: 0.156
true Kuipers skill score: -0.013 true Kuipers skill score: -0.013
threat score:
0.463 0.094 0.000
threat score:
0.463 0.094 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.042 -0.065 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.042 -0.065 0.000
probability of detection:
0.758 0.176 0.000
probability of detection:
0.758 0.176 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.457 0.833 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.457 0.833 0.000
samples: 64 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00