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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200206-200208

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
18
9
6
33
10
7
1
18
7
3
3
13
35
19
10
64

contingency table
fcst
obs
18
9
6
33
10
7
1
18
7
3
3
13
35
19
10
64

% contingency table
fcst
obs
28
14
9
52
16
11
2
28
11
5
5
20
55
30
16
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
28
14
9
52
16
11
2
28
11
5
5
20
55
30
16
100

hitrate: 0.438 hitrate: 0.438
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.94 0.95 1.30
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.94 0.95 1.30
Heidke skill score: 0.156 Heidke skill score: 0.156
true Heidke skill score: 0.067 true Heidke skill score: 0.067
Kuipers skill score: 0.156 Kuipers skill score: 0.156
true Kuipers skill score: 0.068 true Kuipers skill score: 0.068
threat score:
0.360 0.233 0.150
threat score:
0.360 0.233 0.150
equitable threat score:
-0.001 0.067 0.054
equitable threat score:
-0.001 0.067 0.054
probability of detection:
0.514 0.368 0.300
probability of detection:
0.514 0.368 0.300
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.455 0.611 0.769
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.455 0.611 0.769
samples: 64 out of 64 samples: 64 out of 64
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00