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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200208-200210
 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season
cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
14
12
33
6
12
3
21
6
0
3
9
19
26
18
63

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
14
12
33
6
12
3
21
6
0
3
9
19
26
18
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
22
19
52
10
19
5
33
10
0
5
14
30
41
29
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
22
19
52
10
19
5
33
10
0
5
14
30
41
29
100

hitrate: 0.349 hitrate: 0.349
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.74 0.81 0.50		 bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.74 0.81 0.50
Heidke skill score: 0.024 Heidke skill score: 0.024
true Heidke skill score: 0.019 true Heidke skill score: 0.019
Kuipers skill score: 0.024 Kuipers skill score: 0.024
true Kuipers skill score: 0.020 true Kuipers skill score: 0.020
threat score:
0.156 0.343 0.125		 threat score:
0.156 0.343 0.125
equitable threat score:
-0.084 0.127 0.020		 equitable threat score:
-0.084 0.127 0.020
probability of detection:
0.368 0.462 0.167		 probability of detection:
0.368 0.462 0.167
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.788 0.429 0.667		 false alarm rate (FAR):
0.788 0.429 0.667
samples: 63 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00