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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200212-200302

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
5
3
13
8
3
1
12
13
15
9
37
26
23
13
62

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
5
3
13
8
3
1
12
13
15
9
37
26
23
13
62

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
8
5
21
13
5
2
19
21
24
15
60
42
37
21
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
8
5
21
13
5
2
19
21
24
15
60
42
37
21
100

hitrate: 0.274 hitrate: 0.274
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 0.52 2.85
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 0.52 2.85
Heidke skill score: -0.089 Heidke skill score: -0.089
true Heidke skill score: -0.015 true Heidke skill score: -0.015
Kuipers skill score: -0.089 Kuipers skill score: -0.089
true Kuipers skill score: -0.017 true Kuipers skill score: -0.017
threat score:
0.147 0.094 0.220
threat score:
0.147 0.094 0.220
equitable threat score:
-0.016 -0.053 0.037
equitable threat score:
-0.016 -0.053 0.037
probability of detection:
0.192 0.130 0.692
probability of detection:
0.192 0.130 0.692
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.615 0.750 0.757
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.615 0.750 0.757
samples: 62 out of 62 samples: 62 out of 62
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00