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CPC Verifications

Forecast 200301-200303

 

Verification Type: categorical precipitation
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Precip (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
1
2
8
10
3
4
17
19
15
4
38
34
19
10
63

contingency table
fcst
obs
5
1
2
8
10
3
4
17
19
15
4
38
34
19
10
63

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
2
3
13
16
5
6
27
30
24
6
60
54
30
16
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
2
3
13
16
5
6
27
30
24
6
60
54
30
16
100

hitrate: 0.190 hitrate: 0.190
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.24 0.89 3.80
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.24 0.89 3.80
Heidke skill score: -0.214 Heidke skill score: -0.214
true Heidke skill score: -0.073 true Heidke skill score: -0.073
Kuipers skill score: -0.214 Kuipers skill score: -0.214
true Kuipers skill score: -0.093 true Kuipers skill score: -0.093
threat score:
0.135 0.091 0.091
threat score:
0.135 0.091 0.091
equitable threat score:
0.021 -0.076 -0.054
equitable threat score:
0.021 -0.076 -0.054
probability of detection:
0.147 0.158 0.400
probability of detection:
0.147 0.158 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.375 0.824 0.895
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.375 0.824 0.895
samples: 63 out of 63 samples: 63 out of 63
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00