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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199511-199601

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
10
8
22
40
5
1
0
6
8
2
0
10
23
11
22
56

contingency table
fcst
obs
10
8
22
40
5
1
0
6
8
2
0
10
23
11
22
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
18
14
39
71
9
2
0
11
14
4
0
18
41
20
39
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
18
14
39
71
9
2
0
11
14
4
0
18
41
20
39
100

hitrate: 0.196 hitrate: 0.196
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.74 0.55 0.45
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.74 0.55 0.45
Heidke skill score: -0.205 Heidke skill score: -0.205
true Heidke skill score: -0.306 true Heidke skill score: -0.306
Kuipers skill score: -0.205 Kuipers skill score: -0.205
true Kuipers skill score: -0.295 true Kuipers skill score: -0.295
threat score:
0.189 0.062 0.000
threat score:
0.189 0.062 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.176 -0.012 -0.140
equitable threat score:
-0.176 -0.012 -0.140
probability of detection:
0.435 0.091 0.000
probability of detection:
0.435 0.091 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.833 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.750 0.833 1.000
samples: 56 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00