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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199512-199602

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
26
16
45
2
3
2
7
2
2
0
4
7
31
18
56

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
26
16
45
2
3
2
7
2
2
0
4
7
31
18
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
46
29
80
4
5
4
13
4
4
0
7
13
55
32
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
46
29
80
4
5
4
13
4
4
0
7
13
55
32
100

hitrate: 0.107 hitrate: 0.107
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
6.43 0.23 0.22
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
6.43 0.23 0.22
Heidke skill score: -0.339 Heidke skill score: -0.339
true Heidke skill score: -0.106 true Heidke skill score: -0.106
Kuipers skill score: -0.339 Kuipers skill score: -0.339
true Kuipers skill score: -0.149 true Kuipers skill score: -0.149
threat score:
0.061 0.086 0.000
threat score:
0.061 0.086 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.061 -0.028 -0.062
equitable threat score:
-0.061 -0.028 -0.062
probability of detection:
0.429 0.097 0.000
probability of detection:
0.429 0.097 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.933 0.571 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.933 0.571 1.000
samples: 56 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00