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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199602-199604

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
22
9
10
41
5
1
1
7
4
4
0
8
31
14
11
56

contingency table
fcst
obs
22
9
10
41
5
1
1
7
4
4
0
8
31
14
11
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
39
16
18
73
9
2
2
13
7
7
0
14
55
25
20
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
39
16
18
73
9
2
2
13
7
7
0
14
55
25
20
100

hitrate: 0.411 hitrate: 0.411
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.32 0.50 0.73
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.32 0.50 0.73
Heidke skill score: 0.116 Heidke skill score: 0.116
true Heidke skill score: -0.101 true Heidke skill score: -0.101
Kuipers skill score: 0.116 Kuipers skill score: 0.116
true Kuipers skill score: -0.091 true Kuipers skill score: -0.091
threat score:
0.440 0.050 0.000
threat score:
0.440 0.050 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.026 -0.041 -0.090
equitable threat score:
-0.026 -0.041 -0.090
probability of detection:
0.710 0.071 0.000
probability of detection:
0.710 0.071 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.463 0.857 1.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.463 0.857 1.000
samples: 56 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00