CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199606-199608

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
13
15
16
44
1
3
4
8
0
1
3
4
14
19
23
56

contingency table
fcst
obs
13
15
16
44
1
3
4
8
0
1
3
4
14
19
23
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
23
27
29
79
2
5
7
14
0
2
5
7
25
34
41
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
23
27
29
79
2
5
7
14
0
2
5
7
25
34
41
100

hitrate: 0.339 hitrate: 0.339
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.14 0.42 0.17
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.14 0.42 0.17
Heidke skill score: 0.009 Heidke skill score: 0.009
true Heidke skill score: 0.090 true Heidke skill score: 0.090
Kuipers skill score: 0.009 Kuipers skill score: 0.009
true Kuipers skill score: 0.100 true Kuipers skill score: 0.100
threat score:
0.289 0.125 0.125
threat score:
0.289 0.125 0.125
equitable threat score:
0.059 0.013 0.061
equitable threat score:
0.059 0.013 0.061
probability of detection:
0.929 0.158 0.130
probability of detection:
0.929 0.158 0.130
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.705 0.625 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.705 0.625 0.250
samples: 56 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00