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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199608-199610

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
14
17
11
42
2
1
2
5
2
5
2
9
18
23
15
56

contingency table
fcst
obs
14
17
11
42
2
1
2
5
2
5
2
9
18
23
15
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
25
30
20
75
4
2
4
9
4
9
4
16
32
41
27
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
25
30
20
75
4
2
4
9
4
9
4
16
32
41
27
100

hitrate: 0.304 hitrate: 0.304
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.33 0.22 0.60
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.33 0.22 0.60
Heidke skill score: -0.045 Heidke skill score: -0.045
true Heidke skill score: -0.025 true Heidke skill score: -0.025
Kuipers skill score: -0.045 Kuipers skill score: -0.045
true Kuipers skill score: -0.026 true Kuipers skill score: -0.026
threat score:
0.304 0.037 0.091
threat score:
0.304 0.037 0.091
equitable threat score:
0.015 -0.042 -0.021
equitable threat score:
0.015 -0.042 -0.021
probability of detection:
0.778 0.043 0.133
probability of detection:
0.778 0.043 0.133
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.800 0.778
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.800 0.778
samples: 56 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00