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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199611-199701

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
12
7
26
8
9
8
25
0
3
2
5
15
24
17
56

contingency table
fcst
obs
7
12
7
26
8
9
8
25
0
3
2
5
15
24
17
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
21
13
46
14
16
14
45
0
5
4
9
27
43
30
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
13
21
13
46
14
16
14
45
0
5
4
9
27
43
30
100

hitrate: 0.321 hitrate: 0.321
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.73 1.04 0.29
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.73 1.04 0.29
Heidke skill score: -0.018 Heidke skill score: -0.018
true Heidke skill score: -0.033 true Heidke skill score: -0.033
Kuipers skill score: -0.018 Kuipers skill score: -0.018
true Kuipers skill score: -0.033 true Kuipers skill score: -0.033
threat score:
0.206 0.225 0.100
threat score:
0.206 0.225 0.100
equitable threat score:
0.001 -0.059 0.026
equitable threat score:
0.001 -0.059 0.026
probability of detection:
0.467 0.375 0.118
probability of detection:
0.467 0.375 0.118
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.731 0.640 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.731 0.640 0.600
samples: 56 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00