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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199701-199703

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
34
54
89
0
1
5
6
0
2
8
10
1
37
67
105

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
34
54
89
0
1
5
6
0
2
8
10
1
37
67
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
32
51
85
0
1
5
6
0
2
8
10
1
35
64
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
1
32
51
85
0
1
5
6
0
2
8
10
1
35
64
100

hitrate: 0.095 hitrate: 0.095
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
89.00 0.16 0.15
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
89.00 0.16 0.15
Heidke skill score: -0.357 Heidke skill score: -0.357
true Heidke skill score: 0.007 true Heidke skill score: 0.007
Kuipers skill score: -0.357 Kuipers skill score: -0.357
true Kuipers skill score: 0.013 true Kuipers skill score: 0.013
threat score:
0.011 0.024 0.116
threat score:
0.011 0.024 0.116
equitable threat score:
0.002 -0.028 0.026
equitable threat score:
0.002 -0.028 0.026
probability of detection:
1.000 0.027 0.119
probability of detection:
1.000 0.027 0.119
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.989 0.833 0.200
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.989 0.833 0.200
samples: 105 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00