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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199702-199704

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
19
18
43
2
3
1
6
0
1
6
7
8
23
25
56

contingency table
fcst
obs
6
19
18
43
2
3
1
6
0
1
6
7
8
23
25
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
34
32
77
4
5
2
11
0
2
11
13
14
41
45
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
34
32
77
4
5
2
11
0
2
11
13
14
41
45
100

hitrate: 0.268 hitrate: 0.268
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
5.37 0.26 0.28
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
5.37 0.26 0.28
Heidke skill score: -0.098 Heidke skill score: -0.098
true Heidke skill score: 0.074 true Heidke skill score: 0.074
Kuipers skill score: -0.098 Kuipers skill score: -0.098
true Kuipers skill score: 0.095 true Kuipers skill score: 0.095
threat score:
0.133 0.115 0.231
threat score:
0.133 0.115 0.231
equitable threat score:
-0.004 0.023 0.126
equitable threat score:
-0.004 0.023 0.126
probability of detection:
0.750 0.130 0.240
probability of detection:
0.750 0.130 0.240
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.860 0.500 0.143
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.860 0.500 0.143
samples: 56 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00