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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199708-199710

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp (all stn) 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
23
45
33
101
1
0
1
2
0
1
1
2
24
46
35
105

contingency table
fcst
obs
23
45
33
101
1
0
1
2
0
1
1
2
24
46
35
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
22
43
31
96
1
0
1
2
0
1
1
2
23
44
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
22
43
31
96
1
0
1
2
0
1
1
2
23
44
33
100

hitrate: 0.229 hitrate: 0.229
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.21 0.04 0.06
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
4.21 0.04 0.06
Heidke skill score: -0.157 Heidke skill score: -0.157
true Heidke skill score: -0.008 true Heidke skill score: -0.008
Kuipers skill score: -0.157 Kuipers skill score: -0.157
true Kuipers skill score: -0.009 true Kuipers skill score: -0.009
threat score:
0.225 0.000 0.028
threat score:
0.225 0.000 0.028
equitable threat score:
-0.001 -0.019 0.009
equitable threat score:
-0.001 -0.019 0.009
probability of detection:
0.958 0.000 0.029
probability of detection:
0.958 0.000 0.029
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.772 1.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.772 1.000 0.500
samples: 105 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00