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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199711-199801

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp (all stn) 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
28
31
62
0
2
0
2
0
10
31
41
3
40
62
105

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
28
31
62
0
2
0
2
0
10
31
41
3
40
62
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
27
30
59
0
2
0
2
0
10
30
39
3
38
59
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
3
27
30
59
0
2
0
2
0
10
30
39
3
38
59
100

hitrate: 0.343 hitrate: 0.343
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
20.67 0.05 0.66
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
20.67 0.05 0.66
Heidke skill score: 0.014 Heidke skill score: 0.014
true Heidke skill score: 0.118 true Heidke skill score: 0.118
Kuipers skill score: 0.014 Kuipers skill score: 0.014
true Kuipers skill score: 0.174 true Kuipers skill score: 0.174
threat score:
0.048 0.050 0.431
threat score:
0.048 0.050 0.431
equitable threat score:
0.020 0.032 0.142
equitable threat score:
0.020 0.032 0.142
probability of detection:
1.000 0.050 0.500
probability of detection:
1.000 0.050 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.952 0.000 0.244
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.952 0.000 0.244
samples: 105 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00