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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199712-199802

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Sea Fcst Mdl Temp (all stn) 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
9
44
53
0
3
1
4
1
4
43
48
1
16
88
105

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
9
44
53
0
3
1
4
1
4
43
48
1
16
88
105

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
9
42
50
0
3
1
4
1
4
41
46
1
15
84
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
9
42
50
0
3
1
4
1
4
41
46
1
15
84
100

hitrate: 0.438 hitrate: 0.438
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
53.00 0.25 0.55
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
53.00 0.25 0.55
Heidke skill score: 0.157 Heidke skill score: 0.157
true Heidke skill score: 0.073 true Heidke skill score: 0.073
Kuipers skill score: 0.157 Kuipers skill score: 0.157
true Kuipers skill score: 0.162 true Kuipers skill score: 0.162
threat score:
0.000 0.176 0.462
threat score:
0.000 0.176 0.462
equitable threat score:
-0.009 0.146 0.053
equitable threat score:
-0.009 0.146 0.053
probability of detection:
0.000 0.188 0.489
probability of detection:
0.000 0.188 0.489
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.250 0.104
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.250 0.104
samples: 105 out of 105 samples: 105 out of 105
%coverage: 100.00 %coverage: 100.00